This Isn’t a Cult. Probably.
Why the CRE comeback narrative sounds more like a creed — and what it’s distracting us from
A quick note before we dive in:
I consider myself politically moderate. Don’t get me wrong; I have opinions. They just tend to fall on one side for some things and the other side for others. There are some changes the Trump administration has made — especially around deregulation in commercial real estate — that I’ve been happy to see. But I’m also concerned about the broader instability that’s taken hold, and how certain patterns of behavior at the national level are starting to feel... familiar in unsettling ways.
Overheard at a conference just a couple weeks ago:
“What most people don’t realize — they don’t know — is that commercial real estate has been in a recession. We’ve been in one for the last 2, 3 years now! And we’re ready for it to be done. We’re ready to move on. Everyone’s optimistic that 2025 will be a strong year for real estate.”
Then there was this back-and-forth on LinkedIn. Some upbeat takes, some cautious ones. I couldn’t help myself from jumping in. Because as an optimist at heart, I love a positive perspective! But idealistic optimism? That’s something else entirely.
Mike’s post was full of hope. Then snap! (Do people still say “oh snap!” or does that date me!?) Eric Sharpe chimed in saying that rather than ripening the proptech market, it will be more likely that in-house teams build their own apps. The only downside there is that most CRE firms don’t have the product teams or dev infrastructure to pull it off. Still hopeful, but not in the same direction. I couldn’t help but agree with the counterpoint — but not because of who will build what. Because of the state of the market.
That’s when Eric brought up tariffs.
A few years back, I attended a Nerd Nite event that changed how I think about groups, belief, and the stories we tell ourselves.
If you haven’t been to Nerd Nite, you should look it up for your city and plan your next night out. It’s like TED Talks if they were held in a bar and featured your city’s coolest weirdos. I’ve seen people like Tim League, cofounder of Alamo Drafthouse, teach about film noir, Tito Beveridge from Tito’s Vodka (yes, that Tito) tell his life story, as well as a ton of interesting people from all walks of life teaching about their passion — like a deaf gamer who explained to all of us hearing unimpaired folks how best to collaborate with her and other deaf gamers online.
But this particular Nerd Nite is the one that stood out for me above all the rest. Why? Because it was about cults.
The woman who spoke knew a thing or two about cults. Not only did she serve cult victims in her policy role for the state of Texas, she’d also escaped one. When she was 16. Sixteen! Her sister joined her a few years later. But her parents are still in it today.
She told us what it was like to grow up in a cult. How sheltered she was, not knowing any other way of living. How her parents had esteemed roles, each serving one of the two cult leaders. How when they moved to southern California, she sneaked out in a rebellious act. And how truly seeing the world for the first time made the scales fall from her eyes.
She was incredibly resilient and got a job, her GED, and eventually Bachelors and Masters degrees. Ultimately, she landed that incredible role for the state where she’s able to help cult and domestic abuse victims. And while she saves as many people as she can from similar situations to hers, she still hasn’t been able to save her parents.
Here’s why.
Her parents’ cult leaders were brilliant. No, really. They were incredibly talented leaders who, although they didn’t create the cult playbook, perfected it. Here’s what they do:
Keep members exhausted (so they don’t have the energy to question)
Overwork them (to prevent reflection)
Isolate them (no contact with outsiders)
Preach black-and-white thinking (we’re right, the world is dangerous)
Gaslight them (make them doubt their own perception)
Confiscate money (so they’re financially dependent)
Control information (ban all outside media)
Tell them they’re special (the “chosen”)
Shun anyone who leaves (even your own family)
Sadly, her parents never have gotten out, and they never did contact her again. As of her Nerd Nite talk, she hadn’t seen or heard from her parents in over 25 years.
Cults drive people apart, no matter how close they once used to be.
Reading through that LinkedIn thread brought me right back to that Nerd Nite talk. Not because anyone there was in a cult — but because the way we sometimes accept tidy, hopeful narratives without pressure-testing them reminded me of just how easy it is to slip into groupthink. Something about the optimism I saw in that LinkedIn post combined with the reality of our unstable geopolitical situation brought it rushing back. That’s what struck me: despite the instability, the layoffs, the policy whiplash, we’re still clinging to this almost ritualized optimism. And once you start seeing that pattern, it’s hard to unsee it.
Now, did any of the things the cult leaders did to keep their members in the cult sound familiar to you? Because it’s starting to sound all too real to me.
Exhaustion & Chaos
In cults, you keep people tired so they stop thinking critically. Right now, we are all tired. Political events trigger negative emotional reactions on 81% of days, according to recent psychology studies. People are sleeping less, burning out faster, and feeling sick more often. After layoffs and recession fears, 4 in 5 workers say they’re worried about losing their job. That anxiety drives them to work harder — fueling a burnout spiral that benefits only those in charge. Sound familiar?
Isolationism & “America First”
Cult leaders isolate you from outside perspectives. Our government? It’s been rolling out self-imposed economic isolation: new tariffs on China, Mexico, even Canada. In Florida, they literally renamed the “Gulf of Mexico” to the “Gulf of America.” That’s not just cartographic cosplay — it’s classic cult symbolism. Rewrite the map. Change the language. Sever the ties to anything outside the group.
Us vs. Them Thinking
Every cult needs enemies. The current administration has turned immigration into a zero-sum morality tale. Refugees were turned away by the hundreds of thousands — except for one select group: white South African farmers, who were granted fast-track citizenship. Why them? Because they fit a narrative. They’re “our kind.” Meanwhile, migrants at the border were labeled an “invasion.” This dualism — good insiders vs. evil outsiders — has spilled into diplomacy, too. Allies are now enemies. Everything is a battle. Cooperation? That’s for suckers.
Economic Control from the Top
Cults control members’ finances. Our federal government just launched something called the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Yes, the same week they moved to eliminate the Department of Education. Add in the new “External Revenue Service” (a tariff-collection agency dreamed up by Trump), and you’ve got a government increasingly directing how and where money flows. This isn’t policy — it’s economic puppeteering.
Gaslighting & Information Control
Here’s the creepiest part. Cults tell you not to trust your eyes—only the leader. When prices go up, and jobs vanish, and people panic? The official line is: “Don’t worry! Everything’s fine.” Trump’s trade adviser went on record saying, “Tariffs do not cause inflation.” Studies show the opposite. But we’re told to disbelieve the data. Even scarier? Entire pages about LGBTQ health, HIV, and teen behavior have disappeared from the CDC’s website. 404’d. Deleted. The nation’s largest youth health survey? Gone. Why? Because the administration ordered a purge of anything labeled “gender ideology.” That’s not just censorship. That’s epistemic control. Cult leaders say: “Only trust our truth.” Sound familiar?
Back to that real estate conference.
I was weaving through the roundtables, coffee in hand, when I overheard two guys deep in conversation. One leaned in and said, with the calm certainty of someone repeating something he’d said a dozen times before:
“What most people don’t realize — they don’t know — is that commercial real estate has been in a recession. We’ve been in one for the last two, three years now! And we’re ready for it to be done. We’re ready to move on. Everyone’s optimistic that 2025 will be a strong year for real estate.”
I couldn’t help myself. I sat down, smiled, and said:
“Well, I hope you’re right. But if this administration keeps seesawing, we may not see that as soon as you think.”
Two polite smiles. One raised eyebrow. One long sip of coffee from a guy who suddenly found his cup very interesting.
But I wasn’t trying to be a contrarian. I was trying to stay grounded.
Because once you’ve seen the cult playbook, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing who’s being kept exhausted, who’s cut off from outside perspectives, who’s being told not to trust their own eyes. And you start to wonder: if optimism means ignoring all that — then maybe a little well-placed skepticism is actually an act of clarity.
I’ll be the first to admit: I was hopeful Trump might do some good for this country. I still am, as I am with every new president. Change is often a very good thing! But I didn’t sign up to be part of a cult. And I don’t think you did either.
As Matt Levine put it today: when volatility is the product, being in the inner circle starts to feel like a financial advantage. That’s not just a market dynamic — it’s a cult tactic with a brokerage account. At least you get to keep the money for now, anyway.
So let’s resist the fog. Let’s call the noise what it is. And maybe — just maybe — help each other wake up.
Welcome to the inner circle. No robes, no chants — just dry skepticism and data points.
Subscribe or share it with someone who likes their Kool-Aid with a side of context.
Jen’s Reading Corner
Over the long weekend, I read Annihilation by Jeff VanderMeer. I’ve come to love his books because they all have this sort of sci-fi meets fantasy meets Animal World theme. Highly recommend for a quick read that will have you thinking about your garden a bit… differently.
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